The secret to getting more up-front money is persuading your publisher to project higher book sales. Every publisher I know has an internal “advance offer calculation” process, based on a formula for estimating first year sales, revenues, and royalties.
The formula for book advances
It’s not a shot-in-the-dark but a scientific data dump that projects a precise number, based on (total first year unit sales) x (retail price) x (royalty rate) = first year author earnings = advance offered.
So let’s say an agent sends me your dynamite proposal or manuscript. I love it enough to circulate the proposal throughout the company and now everyone loves it. Yes, this still happens on a regular basis. How do you think all those new books get published every year?
And in each case the publisher has to decide how much of an advance against earnings to offer the prospective author.
Department heads weigh in
Since I need approvals from a large team of financial, sales, marketing, and publicity department heads in order to offer a deal for a book, I meet with and persuade more than a dozen people to get their support and commitment to specific numbers.
Ahead of those meetings, I prepare complex profit and loss spreadsheets, based on projected advance book orders, alternative pricing, first printing, formats, and royalty rates, plus tip sheets about the book, the market, key sales points, and most importantly the author platform and track record. Along with that, a book exhibition or trade fair could prove to be of great worth, while promoting the book. I thought of having my counter with screens and exhibits that can spread my book’s themes and ideas to the various people that will be present at the event. Arranging all those displays and signs for the book fair might be a hectic task to do, therefore I might have to look for trade show rentals by Classic Exhibits or any other company so that I can have a proper display set-up for the marketing of my book.
Then, in large committee rooms sometimes teleconferenced to key outposts around the country, we poll specific sales reps for major national and independent accounts and require a commitment to a specific number of estimated sales.
Hard-nosed feedback
This is when I hear hard-nosed feedback like, “We can get 2500 copies into Barnes & Noble nationwide if we can guarantee this author will be on the Today show,” and “Borders is hurting, so this might be a skip or maybe 400 copies with enough publicity buzz, or how about a good review,” or “Wal-Mart will take 20,000 of this if we drop the price to $6.95.”
And this is when publicity and marketing execs ask me, “Show us that DVD again of the author on Dr. Phil, or is it the local PTA, whatever, we want to see how she can do on her feet without a script. Is she authentic? Is she passionate? How big is her blog, her email list? How many copies did Nielsen’s BookScan say she sold of her last book?”
One by one, around the table and over the live call-in conference lines, everyone makes a conservative estimate. After furious adding and subtracting, the final numbers emerge: Let’s say a total of 54,235 total units projected at $24.95 and an average royalty of 12% retail comes to exactly $162,379.59 first year earnings to the author and that’s my offer: a straight $160K.
Competitive bidding
There may be no one else interested in this book, but more likely there’s a competitive best-offer or round-robin offer, with a short deadline and blind numbers coming in from other bidders with no way of knowing how many or how much. It’s a nerve wracking experience.
But given this formulaic process, what can an author or agent do to jack up the number of projected sales and get the biggest possible advance? The bottom line is that publishers want to know what authors can do to sell the book on their own.
What you can do to negotiate a higher advance
1. Be a celebrity ~ Tina Fey just got upwards of $6 million for an unspecified humor book. Incredible, yes? That’s an exceptional figure by any stretch, but if you can claim a measure of celebrity status in your particular field, it can help boost your own advance.
2. Be honest and smart about your platform ~ Be sure to have that web site up and working, and a blog posting going out at least two or three times a week, before your book goes out for sale.
3. Tell the publisher how many names you’ve captured for own your email list ~ We know that a certain percentage of any blast to a personal email list will buy the book, and they’ll add in those numbers to their total units sold first year.
4. Tell us how many email lists you’re going to purchase yourself ~ These are not very expensive, and they’re key for ongoing email blasts. Publishers know that these lists work and are delighted to keep adding in more units. I know an author who sent out two million emails for his first book and it worked so well he’s committed to sending seven million the next time around. If you get the right lists for your book’s market, it can definitely pump up those numbers.
5. Commit to hiring your own publicity professional or web site marketing specialist ~ Every successful author I know these days has their own publicity and marketing people to fill in all the gaps left by conventional publishing efforts. Publishers will increase their projections when they hear you’re planning on this, so do this for at least a few months before and after pub date, and further, if all goes well. You can check out a digital marketing agency jacksonville company, for example, to discuss with them your next steps, or you could look more locally to see what is available for your marketing plan.
6. Sell a chapter from your book to a respected periodical ~ That proves your work is already recognized and that it has a real market. For fiction there are many excellent literary journals. They may not have a huge circulation but publishers respect their taste and judgment. For non-fiction it depends on your topic, but there are good magazines and journals in every field.
7. Include a DVD in your proposal ~ Whether it’s you on a big network show or at the local Kiwanis, we want to see who you are and how you present. In one case, a first-time author sent me a home video her husband took of her full-face, just talking into the camera. She was so telegenic and persuasive that we doubled our numbers and paid her a larger advance.
8. Get endorsements from recognizable names ~ Go for published authors, respectable experts, folks with good affiliations and credentials. Sure there’s a lot of mutual back-scratching in the blurbs business, but it really does work to have an outside quotation, publishers do want them, and it affects their estimated numbers.
9. Meet the editors, sales and publicity people ~ Offer to come into our offices, especially when your dollar expectations are high. Making the human connection can greatly strengthen your case. As an editor, I sometimes bring an author in to meet with key decision-makers on my team.
Remember: It’s all about the numbers, but by being an active self-marketer, you can influence what are really seat-of-the-pants projections based on subjective impressions and relationships.
I published my first book called “The Continuing Saga of Rikki Tikki Tavi” in 2007 w/Tate Publishing Company. To date I think it’s sold about 2000 copies. Now I want to release the second book and just overwhelmed at all this information! Amazing! Truly amazing! I sell my books anywhere because I carry a stash w/me all the time. It’s in 3d/w glasses, regular and audio. The hardbacks are more than I can afford right now. I know I have a GREAT book especially for those who remember the original story by Rudyard Kipling. My book answers the question I asked myself after reading the book “What happened to the last egg”? There is a film producer interested in doing an animation but it’s been over 3 yrs now and i’m still waiting. I need to get #2 published and don’t have the finances for the contract offered by my publishing company. I am thrilled to find this information and would like to know should I even go through all this since I don’t have any figures to discuss? Thank you and be blessed.
Alan, this is the best overall consolidated/summary of publishing information/advice I’ve ever read. Thank you.
I’m writing my second thriller – The Relict Chronicles (copyrighted) – a paranormal psychological serial killer thriller (the market is screaming for this) involving the paranoia of a Russian prime minister confronted with Rusalka, who is powerful enough to get what he wants. He’s determined to kidnap a powerful American psychic family (Barrins who are of Russian descent) – including twins – to figure out who is conspiring to assassinate him because of Russian Rusalka association/paranoia. Rusalka is a real Russian demon that threatens children especially and leaves them floating.
Listening to the ether is the Director of the PTF paranormal task force (real concept) of the CIA, FBI, NSA, etc. A 4000 year old entity – The Relict – is in control – super high IQ born in a cave of the Dead Sea who controls the ether and wants the twins for himself. He lives in a New York penthouse. He can blink and kill you. Professor Dawson of the CIA collaborates with him. He witnesses EVERY serial killing. He’s immortal and hears everything on the ether – everything in the universe!
I need an advance (perhaps you have advice) to finish this commercially viable novel (500 discombobulated pages so far). An agency was interested in my novel and wanted me to sign but couldn’t deliver an advance so I backed off. The first book is Hero or Villain about the Barrin twins. One was forced to shoot the other during their first encounter in 22 years at McDonalds (1984 true story of mass murder in San Diego). They were strangers holding guns. One was supposed to be dead 22 years ago – a family lie. The parents are supposed to be dead – a lie. They are the most powerful psychics besides The Relict and protected underground by the CIA. A crow is guarding the twin’s grave and the soul is getting restless and his body has not been embalmed and he has not decomposed after one year. The Relict kept him preserved. The Russian prime minister wants his KGB team to grab the twins, a cousin Chris (very smart and strong psychic) the whole Barrin clan, the crow, and to make the Russian Rusalka demon go away while finding out what paranoid groups are planning his assassination. He was born during Rusalka and feels cursed and is pathologically paranoid. The Barrin twins are nephews of the CIA PTF Director, Professor Dawson.
My Hero or Villain book signing party was a success – sold out at B&N, and is selling on Amazon.com
With an advance I can focus and finish this novel within 3-6 months; for now I’m a contract engineer/sr technical writer working for F500 companies like Shell, Exxon, Halliburton….I make good money but not enough to stop working for 6 months and finish the novel. I need to focus. The Relict Chronicles will become a block buster novel, a movie, and games.
Thanks for your time and awesome advice.
Jim Williams – Houston author
Hi Penny,
Search on line for “Email List Brokers” and you’ll see a large choice of companies who offer a variety of services, depending on how much you want to spend, from specialized lists you can rent, to helping write marketing letters, create special offers, and other techniques. You can also try to get free email lists from friends, professional organizations, or colleagues you can trade with, yours for theirs.
-Alan
Where can I get these email list (blasts) from? Thanks.
Hi Livia-
Regarding how to be telegenic and persuasive, check our post from November 19, 2009, especially 1.Rehearse, 2. Read Just Enough and Not Too Much, 3. Look Your Audience in the Eye, and remember that any time you’re at a public event or in the media, you’re a performance artist. For some people that can actually be a lot easier than writing itself.
As for whether or not big advances are always a good thing, I advise authors, that no matter what, they should ignore all horror stories about how awful and impossible it is. In fact, most published books don’t earn out their advances. Nevertheless we do spend more on marketing, print more copies, and hype a title more, if we’ve paid a big advance. Sad but true. And I’ve never known in 47 years of book publishing, an author to turn down an advance because it was too big! It always works better when authors, agents, editors, and publishers all have confidence. Or is it blind faith?
-Alan
How do you purchase an email list? And, by the way – thanks – the information was invaluable.
Oh, and another question — is a bigger advance always a good thing? I hear horror stories about editors being unwilling to buy a second book because the first one didn’t make as much money as anticipated.
Alan,
Any plans for a post on “How to be telegenic and persuasive”?
Alan, you are going to make me an expert, in spite of myself. I learn so much from reading your honest and informative information. Please keep it comeing
Thank you,
Hi Garth-
Hey, we love our local independent booksellers here in the Bay Area: Book Passages, Keplers, Mrs. Dalloways. These shops are still the heart and soul of the business, and can help launch a book with their special sensitivity to the local market.
-Alan
Hi Al-
Right — who doesn’t hate spam? But these mega lists you can buy aren’t slapped together from the phone book. Skilled brokers compile the names of the people who might be most interested in your book, like members of an appropriate professional organization, recent attendees at various workshops and trainings in the field, members of specialized reading groups, magazine and journal subscribers, fanzines, past book buyers from key direct mail and on-line retailers. It’s a science.
Also keep in mind that publishers wouldn’t keep doing this if it wasn’t working.
These efforts can result in returns of 1-3%, which may sound small but add up to orders that make it all worthwhile. Sales can spike within a discreet 6-8 hour period, so Amazon and others will ship fast and reorder, inspiring reprints and gaining attention for a few days. Sure it could be just a flash in the pan, but if the book has legs, getting out a few thousand more copies can generate a buzz that goes far beyond that.
-Alan
This is great, Alan.
I might add: if you’re a first time author or so-called “emerging” author (your previous six books sold a combined total of 2,400 copies), get an enthusiastic blurb from your local, respectable, “reporting,” independent bookseller. A great bookseller who says “I can sell 400 copies of this book next week” is tremendously valuable and will make a publisher take note. Of course, to get this blurb, you must support your local independent bookseller. (You are supporting your local independent bookseller, right???)
This is great, except for the recommendation that people buy lists send spam. What the hell?
Thank you for this infinitely informative article. Your tips sparked a number of unique ideas that are sure to help me with my book proposal!
Best,
Maciej Gabrys
Thank you for this very informative post. I sent out a proposal last week and am waiting to hear back. The process of getting book published can be very intimidating, especially to newbies like me. So insider tips like yours are always welcome.
There are loads of books on preparing proposals and promotion/marketing. I went through about a dozen each, taking notes and learning, before preparing my proposal. For newer writers, that can separate one from the amateurs. Doing the work to find useful websites like yours is another way to become a pro and increase chances for success over and above the quality of the work itself. Many thanks.
Alan – This is FANTASTIC information and much appreciated. There is so much about the publishing world that is a mystery to us newbies, and we can use more information just like this. I’m going to feature this on my blog (and say nice things about you, of course). Thanks a million!
Timely, thanks. I’m sending out my manuscript today.