Mega publishers like Simon and Schuster and Random House could someday cede the midlist to a vast army of self-published authors.
In that scenario, they’d focus instead just on blockbuster books by brand-name authors and celebrities.
All the rest — the literary fiction, the cookbooks, the self-help books, the bread and butter midlist books that now make up 80 percent of every publisher’s list — those books they’d cherry pick from self-published authors who’d already tested the market and had the credible sales to prove it.
Wild-eyed predictions?
This specter of the future of publishing comes from Keith Ogorek, Senior VP for Marketing for Author Solutions, the market leader and rapidly expanding conglomerate of self-publishing companies and services based in Bloomington, Indiana. The imprints on his company’s roster include iUniverse, xlibris, AuthorHouse, Inkubook, Wordclay, Trafford Publishing and others soon to come. We talked the other day.
Some authors could be picked up, Ogorek believes, from the ranks of writers who’d paid the publishers to produce their books under in-house self-publishing imprints: so called “farm teams” of authors willing to underwrite the costs of getting their books into print.
Does the farm team metaphor hold up?
Ok, so the guy has a vested interest in this scenario. It’s his job to hype the heck out of the concept of self-publishing. But he’s persuasively gung ho, viewing himself as a soldier in a great populist movement.
“What does all this mean for authors?” Ogorek asks. “They now have more freedom to control their own destiny and have a vote as to what happens with their books. Long live the revolution!”
But the farm team metaphor doesn’t quite hold up. Baseball players don’t pay the majors to join a farm team. They’re drafted. They get salaries.
No foot in the door
Like a baseball farm team, though, in-house self-publishing divisions provide a new pool of talent from which a publisher can draw. Time will show us how it plays out in reality. It seems disingenuous, however, to suggest that signing up gives a writer any special access or a foot in the door.
The numbers, moreover, don’t yet bear out the farm team scenario. Publisher’s Weekly reports that Thomas Nelson’s in-house self-publishing division Westbow Press has already published 75 books since January of this year, and has 300 signed contracts with writers. But Thomas Nelson has yet to pick up a single title.
Ogorek predicts that will change in the months to come, once the self-published books have time to develop traction and credible book sales. He says the contracts writers sign don’t give the publisher an option to acquire the book, and the writer is free to shop the book around to any publisher who may be interested. Caveat! Writers should be certain of the language in any contract they sign, and have it checked first by an attorney.
The future is here
Ogorek’s scenario is already unfolding to a limited degree. Author Solutions has launched three partnerships with commercial publishers. One, noted above, is with the Thomas Nelson imprint Westbow Press. The author signs a contract with Westbow, and Author Solutions manages the editing and production of the self-published book.
They’ve struck a similar deal with publisher Hay House and their new self-publishing division, Balboa Press. And another with romance publisher Harlequin Books‘ self-publishing venture, DellArte Press, formerly called Harlequin Horizons in an arrangement that fueled an uproar among writers and traditional publishers. Ogorek downplayed Author Solution’s partnership with Harlequin, as essentially dormant.
How writers can leverage this situation
How can writers use this situation to their own advantage? If you’re tired and exasperated at waiting, waiting, and then waiting some more for agents and publishers to wake up and pay attention to your book…take a look at self-publishing.
It’s not what it used to be. Self-publishing has grown exponentially and achieved an unprecedented degree of legitimacy.
This approach has emerged as a powerful and effective way to prove the quality of your content and show that you can self-market. And most significantly, if you can achieve a threshold of sales, say from 5-10K copies on your own, a traditional publisher may offer you a deal to take over the book for their list.
This isn’t some future-tense scenario hyped up by self-pub marketing enthusiasts. It’s real, and it’s happening now.
I know this because I’m starting to receive more agented submissions of books from self-published writers. And I’ve signed up several.
Agents: The missing link
That said, many agents are on the fence about self-publishing. Old-school literary representatives still think of self-published books as somehow tainted. They try to steer writers away from the idea.
Speaking for Author Solutions, Ogorek says agents with attitudes represent the biggest hurdle for their writers.
“The biggest problem we have now is getting agents to realize that self-publishing is good for their clients,” he says.
“Some agents still won’t take on authors who are already self-publishing. But many are realizing what money-makers these self-published books can be, not only in retail and bulk sales, but with eBook, translation and other derivative earnings.”
Speaking for myself as an acquiring editor, I’m on the other side of this issue, and anticipate that more agents will begin to move over. Watch this blog for an upcoming post on agents and self-published writers.
Who gets the last laugh?
Sp who’d get the last laugh, if self-published writers ended up dominating the midlist? Who’d come out ahead?
Writers or commercial publishers? Or would everyone win?
You tell me.
Hi Alan,
Thanks for an interesting discussion. I’m a newbie to both blogging and self-publishing. I’m so glad I found your website while researching other blogs in preparation for launching my own. I’m still trying to sort out the paradigm shift in the publishing world where self-publishing is no longer an anathema. I thought my road to publication had ended when I landed an agent at Trident Media for my novel, Deadly Play. But after 8 rejections from editors, albeit highly positive ones, she recommended that I self-publish the book (the first in a series) on my own to build a readership so that she can go out to traditional publishers with book 2 and point to an existing fan base. However, as some of your readers have noted, if an author invests the time and effort to successfully market their own book, the incentive to turn everything over to a publisher, let alone a small press with minimal expected financial returns, is greatly diminished. As the brave new world of publishing sorts itself out, it will be interesting to see how the author-agent relationship evolves.
M.K. Perkins at mkperkins.com
The key question is: what would you recommended to an author who knows they have a quality work that is marketable? I always hear it assumed that any quality work gets published and published well. It’s assumed that a good author doesn’t need to worry. This seems even to my youthful eyes to be far from the truth.
One of the last interesting articles I read spoke about many of the bestselling series of the last decade and how all were turned down repeatedly by publishers before somehow sneaking through the crack. Some agents can believe self-published authors are tainted (I’m on the fence about this), but the system as-is seems to me to be if not tainted, then at least low-functioning. Let’s take something off that list that they said did make it through traditional publishing: The Twilight Series. It was over that houses’ word count and only made it through when a reader passed it onto an editor by accident and the editor noticed only later how long it was. Bestselling works seem to be too original in their early form for the trend-oriented world of New York publishing and they also are usually written in a style appealing to average readers but not to agents/publishers. Many series usually come across as long, overly descriptive, and self indulgent.
My father and I have bumped into a little of the earliest forms of this in our own series, The Chronicles of Lorixia, but after some word-count editing are about to try again. But, we have a lot of confidence this time, especially because we’ve taken the approach of acquiring our own test readers; even when dealing by email they’ve showed unusual excitement at our marketing concept and work. We also are catering to a more Christian or values-oriented audience where it is easier to market and speak on high quality material as well as receive quality word-of-mouth. That being said, it’s good to know that self-publishing could be an alternative route if we were to get denied.
It is in a sense the same process for modern rappers or rock groups in the current music industry who sell by themselves to start their career. They then have proof they can hold before them as they walk into an executive’s office. And sometimes already a great measure of fame, overseas exposure, and loyal support. The internet, and especially Facebook with its ludicrously-powerful advertising system is the wild card that will continue to play out.
-Judah J of lorixia.blogspot.com
I’ve written several manuscripts–none worth publishing–until I finally had one I knew had legs. I got down to two agents in 2008/2009 who requested fulls, but they passed citing the economy. I decided that an ebook was better than no book at all. Smashwords rescued a fun little thriller novel from being stuck forever in a drawer. It has generated modest sales on Barnes and Noble, Kobo, iBooks and a couple of other online retailers. Amazon will have it soon. I can’t think of a better distribution than that for an unknown author. Even if a major house bought the book, 90% of the marketing chores would still be mine, so why wait for the market to change or for an agent to pluck me from obscurity? I write because I love to write–and if only a few hundred people read my book, so what? I sure as hell didn’t start this to get rich.
This makes so much sense to me. I think this would be a wonderful scenario for writers. I tried self-publishing three middle grade fantasy adventure novels back before eBooks were popular. I sold quite a few copies and started hearing from people across the country who had discovered my novels in their library or whose children were doing book reports on them. It was pretty exciting. I later had those books picked up by a small press.
I’ve recently discovered some amazing self-published and small press books, and wondered why agents hadn’t taken on those books. My favorite is TINKERS by Paul Harding, the small press novel that won a Pulitzer Prize this year. It makes sense, now that I hear it put into words, that maybe the authors who used to be mid-list will now need to try self-publishing or small press instead.
My fourth self published book is about to be printed. I started to write novels after a long engineering work career. I went this way because I was impatient to getting my books published. I have found that the time and effort to sell books requires almost a full time job with a significant amount of personal investment. A reasonable email marketing campaign can cost $500 to $1,000.I have had great success and good reader response working with my local independent book store but that only results in sales of 100’s. To reach 5,000 copies requires a full time book store by book store author signing event. Travel costs to visit book stores can become significant higher that the return from selling 10 to 20 books at a book signing.
There doesn’t appear to be a stigma against self-publishers anymore which is a good thing. However, many potential self-publishers don’t realize that a traditional publishing company has many seasoned specialists, including those in editing, design, production management, and marketing, departments. As a self-publisher hiring all of those specialists can be very expensive and time consuming. Once the books is published the marketing of it can be a full time job.
Self-publishing I think will continue to be for some time to come at least, a viable option for a very small minority of writers. It takes so much more time, effort, skill, and money to make anything worthwhile happen through this avenue. I believe that the vast majority of writers have no real idea just how much is involved in turning your written words into sales. Even with the time and energy to pursue it, most will find all of the aspects of publishing beyond writing the book to be either too daunting a task or beyond their means in skill or money. All of this assumes of course one is looking at a possible career in writing. One can easily get their book out there in the digital universe for people to read and have it put into print. Getting very many readers to actually find it and buy it is an entirely different world.
Personally, I would not recommend pursuing this path if you are focused on making a career out of writing. Take all of that time and energy and invest it in the one thing you have real control over, writing your next book. Regardless, you need a bit of luck to make it; right place, right time, right people and all that.
I agree…Many authors, moreover, are willing to accept a share of the earnings that is always negotiable, depending on track record and leverage, in return for the prestige of a good imprint. My sense is that the cachet of the “conventional” agent/publisher route provides the credibility to get one’s foot into the door of bookstores and some speaking venues.
Hi Alan,
Specifically, I built my audience by participating in Message Boards/Forums where I knew my target market was. I had a link to my website in my signature and I didn’t talk about my book, I just participated. People naturally clicked on the link and that link had an excerpt with an invitation to buy or download the book. Then I blasted (aka spammed) the literary agency world, knowing the right agency would respond who “got it”. One did and 7 days after signing with her, we sold the book to then Warner Books (now known as Grand Central Publishing). I formed a company that helps authors do the same at GumboWriters.com.
Hi, Alan:
As a recently self-published author, I read this post with interest. I’m getting some traction in physical copies, and my book will soon be e-published; I will see what difference that makes in total sales.
My sense is that the cachet of the “conventional” agent/publisher route provides the credibility to get one’s foot into the door of bookstores and some speaking venues. However, judging from an experience I had in a “Meet the Author” pitch session for potential speaking gigs, even some “name” authors that aren’t blockbuster names don’t get heavy-duty marketing support/tours, either.
I was lucky enough to get a good review in a relatively prestigious national newspaper for my targeted niche audience. That’s been a boon to my credibility in marketing myself to potential program venues. The review even made a point about how self-published books can slip through the cracks, but this one shouldn’t be ignored. The reviewer, who’s a somewhat known name in a field related to my topic, is someone I’ve met once or twice but who remained on my email list when I “announced.” When he replied that he was buying it on Amazon, I brazenly wrote back asking for a PR blurb, if he liked it. He considered it brazen, but in good humor, and ten days later wrote back “WOW” and said he was writing a review for this newspaper. I think of myself as polite and modest and might have hesitated on such brazenness, but, if you want to sell, you just have to get yourself out there, somehow!
With a lot of work, I AM getting out there, and readers love it, which, honestly, is a very pleasant shock! However, when a reader at an appearance yesterday asked if it was going to be translated into other languages (the plot travels), I acknowledged the likely need for an agent to make something like that happen (true, Alan?). Up until now, once I got going on publishing, I haven’t missed the “attitudes” of (and potential commissions to) the ones I encountered–but never say never.
Thanks, as always, for the informative post.
In all these discussions, everyone talks about the conglomerate publishers and the self-published as if no other choices exist.
Authors can also choose a small press or an epublisher who may or may not offer paper versions of their books. Small press and epublishers offer the best of both worlds — free editing, cover, etc., as well as a platform of respectability you won’t have self-published or subsidy published, and there is a chance of being reviewed that is rarely possible with self/subsidy.
As someone who has been involved with small press and epublishing for many years, I’ve seen the farm team idea many times. When erotica exploded in the digital community, many NY romance editors trolled the major erotica publishers and lured many of the best authors to their own publishers. Other very successful authors have moved from the smaller publishers to the bigger publishers.
For every self-pub who makes it into primetime, many, many more small press and epublished authors have made the same journey, and they have built successful careers.
A author who can’t sell to the big publishers would do better to a small press or epublisher than to self-publish.
I’m a self-published author (through one of Mr. Ogorek’s imprints) and so far, I’m very happy with my decision. As a first time author, I loved having more control over my book than I otherwise might have, the book has garnered some critical acclaim, and sales are going well. I will, however, be pursuing getting an agent and hopefully selling to a traditional publisher in hopes to get wider distribution. Assuming that sales and platform are one of the things that they would look at, I’m curious to hear from those of you who’ve done it whether you’d be willing to share ballpark figures of what kinds of sales numbers it would take to even get a traditional publisher interested?
Hi K.L. Brady,
Thanks for the reality check. You’re spot on about distribution. Mainstream publishers have long-standing personal relationships with key buyers at the biggest accounts, including Amazon, B&N, and others. They can go in and set orders based on trust and track record that are impossible for a self-published author to achieve. They have the potential to sweeten the deal with co-op space advertising for the stores, and extra fees for front table displays.
No way you can get that on your own. Self-publishing, moreover, can be very challenging. It takes time, energy, and financial commitment. Some authors are willing to devote half their day to it, others are not. Congratulations for selling well as an unknown and then getting the two-book deal with S&S.
Hi Arlen,
Publishers are indeed trying to figure out new business models to stay alive, and harnessing authors who are willing to pay for their own self-publishing is one of them.
Many authors, moreover, are willing to accept a share of the earnings that is always negotiable, depending on track record and leverage, in return for the prestige of a good imprint. Yes, even King, Rawlings, and other high end authors love that little Random House, Knopf, Scholastic, or Simon & Schuster logo on their spine.
And traditional publishers still offer many skills and back office resources that make it easier for authors who want to spend more of their time just writing.
Hi Livia,
Agreed. There are many ways for authors with different talents and skills to sell their own books, some less costly than others. The fee these publishers are charging cover some gateway charges and, hey, a profit margin for them, to be sure. It’s a business, right? Not an NGO or tax-free foundation. In the case of Author Solutions, I’m told the author pays in proportion to services provided from a menu of choices, including special design, publicity, marketing, and sales.
And remember: Some authors love to read and talk about their work in public — so they’ll want those hard copies to sign and sell.
Go Jeff,
I’ve admired your terrific energy and attitude, and congratulate you on this success. Tell us what you did on your own to get their attention.
Hi GTChristie,
As a fellow avid trawler, I agree that print won’t always lead the way, and in fact doesn’t lead now in the case of self-published books. Many of these independent books are found first in ebook form and may or may not be purchased also as print.
I don’t believe, however, that print will be by-passed entirely in many segments of the market, including those of us who like print but need an ebook for easy access while commuting or on vacation. I share your enthusiasm for these exciting times in publishing!
I’m an originally self published author who was picked up by Simon & Schuster in a two book deal. I was doing pretty well in sales, at least as far as my ebooks were concerned. I was selling pretty well for an unknown.
The reason a self-published author would accept an offer from a big 6 or other publisher is because, no matter how well you’re doing as a self-published author, your distribution will be limited. Period. Going with a major publisher can expand your distribution, your visibility, and your opportunities to reach wider audiences.
The distribution end has not caught up with the changing perceptions about self-published books–whatever your perceptions, I can tell you, the reality is something very different having just jumped through those hoops on a very real level. It’s still not easy (dare I say it’s very hard) getting your books widely distributed into stores and other retail outlets that major publishers already have access to. I would venture to say that those self-published authors who are doing exceptionally well and are able to reach those outlets are probably able to do so because they built their name and reputation with a major or indie publisher first.
So publishers still have more to offer than just an advance. I have no doubt this will change in the future, but believe me when I tell you, they HAVE NOT changed yet.
Color me skeptical, but isn’t there a slight flaw in that plan? I mean, if the self-published author is selling enough to attract the attention of the major publisher in the first place, why would they turn away from something that’s already working for them?
The only thing a publisher has to offer at that point is a marketing machine, in exchange for a significantly reduced profit per sale on the part of the author. If the author is already selling well enough without the publisher, why would they stop? To get a smaller piece of a possibly larger (but also possibly not) pie?
As for the high-end author, those “brands” are precisely the ones who need the publisher least, so why would they cede significant money to a publisher that would in all probability not be able to generate any additional sales for them? (Would sales numbers for King or Rowling or any of the like *really* change because of the publisher’s name on the book? Would they lack distribution channels for their books?)
It doesn’t make sense, especially in a world where more channels are opening up for distribution of self-published works. No, if that’s the best business model publishers can come up with, I’ll expect to see them all close down in the next 30 years.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope publishers work out a functional business model and stick around. I have no idea how this will shake out in the end, but it’s going to be an interesting ride.
You know, I tweeted about this scenario a while back. It really isn’t all that far fetched. Why should a publisher take a risk on an unknown, when it can take a book with proven sales numbers? I’m still a bit leery about fee charging publishers though. I think for self publishing, electronic publishing on kindle/smashwords/scribd offers the most benefit for the lowest risk. And unless you’re a popular speaker who sells hard copies at speaking engagements, you probably won’t lose much from foregoing print.
I’m a self-published author who landed an agent and a contract with Grand Central. It can happen!
I’ve read similar analyses here and there. Self-publishing does appear to be getting stronger and it seems to be connected to both a sharper business model in that sector itself, and an improving path from that sector to the traditional commercial market. But as I read this post, I wondered how the e-book market affects the picture. It’s becoming possible for even the mass market publishers to bypass print altogether and easy access to the e-book path to glory seems to create another tier in the scenario. Yet the scenario you have sketched above mentions e-books as a “derivative” form, as if print comes first and electronic publishing rides its coattails. In my travels I have noticed that seems to be changing. I’m old-fashioned. I love print and it’s hard to imagine it will ever die. But I’m also a technophile and I don’t mind paying 5-10 bucks for an e-version of something once called a dime novel. I’ve also found “out of print” copies of niche genres (my passion is phi/anth/politics for instance) as electronic books I couldn’t get from Amazon in any other form. This breaks down my resistance to seeking new and experimental authors (for instance) from the same source. At the very least this seems to show an extra tier developing in the continuum from unpublished manuscript to mega publisher. I see e-books stealing a march, and wonder how you see the picture. Wouldn’t you trawl the e-book troves just as you would the self-published print market? And do you see, as I do, that by 2020 it might be the print markets riding on e-book coattails? Maybe I’m just more techno-philic than other 60+ year olds, but I feel in my bones a revolution coming. Or maybe that’s a different subject, best left for another post?